India’s climate policies are making significant strides in curbing emissions, potentially reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by nearly four billion tonnes between 2020 and 2030, according to a recent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).
The reduction is equivalent to approximately 1.6 times the European Union’s 2023 CO2 emissions, reflecting India’s accelerated progress toward its ambitious climate goals.
At COP26 in Glasgow, India pledged to cut emissions by one billion tons by 2030, and this study shows it is well on its way to surpassing that target.
Major Emissions Savings
CEEW’s study, titled Impact of Select Climate Policies on India’s Emissions Pathway, reveals that India’s climate policies across the power, residential, and transport sectors collectively saved 440 million tons of CO2 (MtCO2) from 2015 to 2020.
Among these, the power sector has achieved the highest emissions reductions due to its dominant share of national carbon emissions. With expanded decarbonization efforts, this sector is expected to continue leading India’s journey toward a 2070 net-zero goal.
A First-of-Its-Kind
CEEW’s assessment highlights how India’s policies are reshaping the country’s energy landscape.
Measures promoting renewable energy, energy efficiency, and electric mobility have led to an increase in renewables in the energy mix. They have also resulted in the adoption of electric vehicles and enhanced efficiency in air conditioning and lighting.
Key initiatives such as the national solar mission, FAME I & II schemes, and the standards and labelling scheme continue to impact energy demand. The UJALA program also plays a role in reducing emissions.
Renewables Drive
The study projects a 24% decline in coal-based electricity generation by 2030, thanks to policies promoting renewable energy. This translates to avoiding 80 gigawatts (GW) of coal-based power plants that would otherwise be needed to meet India’s energy demands.
Currently, India’s installed renewable energy capacity (excluding large hydro) stands at around 155 GW.
By 2030, the share of solar and wind power in the energy mix is expected to rise to 26% and reach 43% by 2050, compared to just 3% in 2015.
This shift is set to significantly reduce reliance on coal, which is responsible for nearly half of India’s carbon emissions.
Global Support
Dr. Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of CEEW mentioned, “The road to net zero needs bolder action, and the foot cannot be taken off the pedal now. To enable the Global South’s efforts, COP29 must ensure climate finance flows to developing countries like India, without riders.”
The financial support would further strengthen renewable markets and accelerate a sustainable future worldwide.
Electric Mobility
In the transport sector, policies like the FAME schemes have laid the groundwork for the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in India.
By 2030, electric two-wheelers and four-wheelers are projected to make up 19% and 11% of their market segments, respectively.
This shift could reduce oil and gas demand by 13% within this decade. By 2050, EV adoption rates are expected to exceed 65% in both categories. It will result in a 55% reduction in oil and gas demand, as compared to a scenario without these policies.
Energy Efficiency
The 2006 standards and labelling program has enhanced energy efficiency in air conditioning and cooling. This is essential, as electricity consumption for cooling in Indian households is projected to double between 2020 and 2030. It is then expected to increase nearly tenfold by 2050.
This rise will be driven by higher temperatures, rising incomes, and reduced electricity costs stemming from increased renewable energy penetration.
Additionally, the UJALA program has distributed over 367 million energy-efficient LED bulbs since 2015. It is expected to cut residential lighting electricity consumption by 48% by 2030 and 59% by 2050.
The press release stated that India can continue bending its emissions curve toward a sustainable, net-zero future. This can be achieved by building on robust policies and making strategic investments, while safeguarding its energy security.
