A recent study by the Raman Research Institute (RRI) in Bengaluru has projected that India will surpass the United States in the number of annual scientific publications by 2029. The study indicates that while China will maintain its dominance as the global leader in scientific publications, the United States will drop to third place behind Indonesia.
India is expected to move ahead of the US five years later, according to the statistical analysis conducted by Dipak Patra of RRI’s Soft Condensed Matter Group.
The analysis, which examined scientific publications from 50 countries between 1996 and 2020, explored the evolving disparities in publication numbers and when these disparities might level out. The study predicts that by 2046, all countries except China will contribute equally to global scientific publications.
The research utilized statistical tools like entropy – measuring unpredictability in data – and linear regression analysis to draw its conclusions. “Based on the regression analysis, it is projected that Indonesia, India, and Iran could surpass the US in scientific output around 2024, 2029, and 2041, respectively,” the study revealed.
The study also notes that entropy has generally increased over time, reflecting the growing participation of various countries in scientific advancements, with lesser-developed nations contributing more significantly.
However, since 2017, entropy has shown a notable decline due to the sharp rise in China’s publication output. Recognizing China as an outlier, the study excluded it from the scope of its main analysis.
By calculating the entropy between the US and other nations, the research assessed how stable the US’s ranking is compared to other leading countries. The study identifies Indonesia, India, and Iran as nations likely to outpace the US in scientific output by 2024, 2029, and 2041, respectively.
The study acknowledges two important caveats. First, it warns that predictions based on linear regression depend heavily on current growth trends and could be inaccurate if countries alter their research and development policies.
Second, it emphasizes that the study focuses solely on the quantity of scientific publications and does not address the quality of these publications, which is typically measured through citations or impact factor. These metrics, however, can be manipulated and do not always reflect true scientific progress.
As reported by thehindubusinessline.com, and according to Scopus, a multidisciplinary abstract and citation database, India ranked fourth in the number of scientific publications in 2020, with 1,91,590 publications, trailing behind China (7,44,042), the US (6,24,554), and the UK (1,98,500).
