India, the world’s fourth-largest crude oil refiner, is expected to play a significant role in refinery operations in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, excluding China, by 2045. The OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2023 report highlights that India will be the largest contributor to capacity expansions in this region.
Refinery runs, which represent the amount of crude oil processed by a refinery over a specific time, were nearly back to pre-pandemic levels in India. The report forecasts that refinery runs in the Asia-Pacific (excluding China) will increase by about 4.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), from 16.5 mb/d in 2022 to just over 21 mb/d in 2045. India is expected to account for around 60 percent of this growth.
The report anticipates that utilisation rates will peak at approximately 88.3 percent in 2025 and gradually decline to about 81.5 percent in 2045 as new refining capacity comes online. This trend reflects a shift of refining capacities from developed to developing regions, with the Asia-Pacific, West Asia, and Africa leading the way. These regions are set to represent almost 90 percent of medium-term capacity additions, driven by strong demand growth and increased product exports.
India’s plans include adding up to 56.6 million tons per annum (MTPA) of crude oil refining capacity over the next seven years. The majority of this expansion, 84 percent, will come from brownfield projects, with an additional 9 MTPA through greenfield expansion. Currently, India is the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer, with a cumulative refining capacity of over 254 MTPA or just over five million barrels per day.
As reported by businessline, in the fiscal year 2023, Indian refineries processed 5.13 mb/d of crude oil, and the country has been investing in expanding its infrastructure, including crude oil transportation pipelines of 10,938 km with a capacity of 153.1 MTPA, and refined products transportation pipelines spanning 22,973 km with a capacity of 149.3 MTPA. Additionally, India is focusing on expanding its petrochemical sector, with a target to reach 9 mb/d of refining capacity by 2030.
