OPEC has increased its projections for global oil demand in the coming decades, even as the world shifts towards cleaner energy sources to combat climate change. According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) world oil outlook, oil consumption is expected to rise by 16% over the next twenty years, reaching 116 million barrels per day by 2045.
This is approximately six million barrels per day higher than their previous estimates. The growth in oil demand is expected to be primarily driven by road transportation, petrochemicals, and aviation, with India leading the expansion, nearly doubling its consumption to almost twelve million barrels per day, followed by China with a 26% increase of four million barrels per day.
While OPEC’s forecasts suggest significant growth in oil consumption, many experts and organisations are skeptical about the sustainability of such high levels of hydrocarbon use within the time frame proposed by OPEC.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global demand for fossil fuels will level off by the end of this decade as countries transition to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles. To meet net-zero emissions targets and limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the IEA argues that investment in new oil projects must stop.
Despite these concerns, OPEC has also increased its projections for the amount of oil it will supply in the coming years. As reported by FINANCIAL POST, Many OPEC member countries currently face challenges such as underinvestment, operational disruptions, and political instability, which hinder their ability to produce at their maximum quotas. OPEC expects its liquid supply to rise by approximately 14% to 38.9 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, ultimately reaching 46.1 million barrels per day by 2045.
